Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
The current spurt in the stock market is on account of strong fundamentals and robust corporate earnings and retail investors can look for buying opportunities to accumulate quality stocks, experts said.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Industrial production was seen growing 1.8 per cent from a year earlier in July, slower than June's 3.4 per cent increase, according to the median consensus in a poll of 31 economists.
Coal, electricity and cement production in particular, along with an uptick in demand for India's products abroad, are also expected to have contributed to overall factory output growth in September.
Subdued prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation for the third month in a row to 5.3 per cent in August, within the RBI's comfort zone. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation declined to 5.3 per cent in August from 6.69 per cent in the same month a year ago, food inflation dipped at a much faster pace to 3.11 per cent from 9.05 per cent in August 2020. The food inflation was also lower than 3.96 per cent in preceding month of July.
A Reuters poll had forecast retail inflation would slow to 8.35 percent from an annual 8.79 percent in January.
With RBI likely to make credit costlier and banks to follow, some ideas on switching money to be able to do this.
The retail inflation rate breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit of the RBI for the first time in seven months in January, while the wholesale price index stayed in double-digits for the 10th month in a row, showed two sets of data released by the government on Monday. Retail inflation, the key input for the RBI while reviewing the repo rate every two months, soared during the month mainly because of a spike in certain food items. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021.
Retail inflation remained above the RBI's comfort level for the second consecutive month despite slipping slightly to 6.26 per cent in June while the factory output recorded a growth of 29.3 per cent in May, mainly on account of the base effect, the government data showed. The marginal slippage in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was noticed despite little firmness witnessed in the food inflation which inched up to 5.15 per cent in June from 5.01 per cent a month ago. Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.3 per cent in May 2021 and 6.23 per cent in June 2020.
Progress on monsoons along with favourable base effect in 2HFY2017 continues to point towards RBI achieving its near 5 per cent inflation target by the year-end
The actual expenditure will only be marginally higher and hence, the multiplier effect will be muted.
The repo rate has been unchanged since January, when the RBI increased it by a quarter percentage point.
By no means do economists see the Reserve Bank of India stop at just a 25-bp cut. Some of the economists such as Soumyakanti Ghosh of State Bank of India are of the firm view that rates have room to fall by a total of 75 bps in the current financial year, starting with 25 bps in the August 7 policy.
The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly raised its policy interest rate on Tuesday by 25 basis points (bps) but said that if consumer price inflation eases as projected, it does not foresee further near-term tightening.
There is a near consensus that at least a 25 basis points cut, if not 50, can be expected in the June policy.
RBI is expected to discuss about the impact of GST in its monetary policy.
Policymakers have been grappling with high prices for food staples such as onions and potatoes even after the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point in each of its previous two reviews.
Most immediately, he pledged to move slowly if needed in winding down an oil window that provides dollars directly to state-run oil companies
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Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
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